The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment Por
Terrorism is not new to Southeast Asia. For much of the Cold War, the activities of a variety of domestic ethnonationalist and religious militant groups posed a significant challenge to the region's internal stability. Since the 1990s, however, the residual challenge posed by substate militant extremism has risen in reaction to both the force of modernization pursued by many Southeast Asian governments and the political influence of radical Islam. Building on prior RAND research analyzing the underlying motives, drivers, and capabilities of the principal extremist groups that have resorted to terrorist violence in the Philippines, southern Thailand, and Indonesia, this study examined the historical roots of militancy in these countries to provide context for assessing the degree to which local agendas are either being subsumed within a broader ideological framework or shaped by other extremist movements. Moving beyond simple terrorism analysis, this research also examined national and international government responses to militant movements in the region, including counterterrorist initiatives, military and policing strategies, hearts-and-minds campaigns, and funding and support from international organizations and governments (including the United States). Finally, the study broke new ground in assessing Cambodia as a potential future terrorist operational and logistical hub in Southeast Asia.
The Information Revolution in Asia Por
This report discusses the information revolution in the Asia-Pacific region and its likely course over the next five to ten years. Key questions addressed in this report include the extent to which the information revolution has taken hold of markets in this region, the political implications of the information revolution for Asian governments, the variations between individual countries, and the prospects for further information-technology-related developments in the region. The authors address two questions about the effect of the information revolution on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region: (1) To what extent do Asian countries and markets use IT, and (2) to what extent do they produce IT software and hardware? The authors determine that Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan are today both major users and producers of IT. Australia, Hong Kong, and New Zealand are large users but not producers, whereas Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand produce large quantities of technology products but are not big users. In examining the effect of the information revolution on politics and governance in Asia, the authors present a varied picture. IT has contributed to political change in liberal democracies and one-party dominant states alike and will play a large role in any political transitions that occur in wired countries. Although e-government has the potential to usher in significant change in the relationship between government and citizens, most such shifts will be only gradual.
China's Air Force Enters the 21st Century Por
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) does not constitute a credible offensive threat against the United States or its Asian allies today, and this situation will not change dramatically over the coming decade. If anything, its overall capabilities relative to most of its potential rivals will diminish over the next ten years. These circumstances are a product of constrained strategic thinking in China about the role of airpower, the lack of funds needed for a comprehensive modernization program, logistics and maintenance problems, the limited training available to its pilots, and the absence of a capability to develop and manufacture advanced airpower weapon systems. Although some modern aircraft will be introduced into the PLAAF inventory during the next ten years, the rate and scale of these acquisitions will remain incremental and demonstrably insufficient to redefine the regional airpower balance.
China's International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification Por
China is now a global actor of significant and growing importance. It is active in regions and on issues that were once only peripheral to its interests, and it is effectively using tools previously unavailable. It is no longer appropriate to talk of integrating China into the international system; by and large, it is already there. Its international behavior is clearly altering the dynamics of the current international system, but it is not transforming its structure.
China's Pursuit of Overseas Security Por
China's ascent as the world's second-largest economy has brought the country tremendous prosperity, but integration into the global economy has also exposed growing numbers of its citizens and their assets to potential harm. This report examines China's pursuit of security for its overseas interests. It surveys Chinese writings and Western reporting to describe the country's likely approach to protecting its economic and strategic interests abroad. The report concludes that China is likely to pursue a distinctive approach that features a far more limited military role than has been the case for the United States or imperial powers of previous centuries. Instead, China will likely rely on a blend of military, paramilitary, civilian contractors, and host-nation forces to carry out a more limited range of nonwar missions and tasks to safeguard international interests. This approach carries both opportunities and concerns for U.S. interests abroad. The PLA could prove a helpful partner to the United States in a variety of nonwar missions, such as humanitarian aid/disaster relief and counterpiracy operations. However, Chinese use of paramilitary forces and provision of arms to host-nation–provided forces could complicate the interests of the United States and its allies in some regions.
Chinese Responses to U. S. Military Transformation and Implications for the Department of Defense Por
Over the past decade, Chinese military strategists have keenly observed changes in U.S. national strategy and military transformation. The acceleration of its own military modernization suggests that China is not dissuaded by U.S. military prowess but instead is driven by a range of strategic and military motivations to keep pace. This report examines the constraints, facilitators, and potential options for Chinese responses to U.S. transformation efforts, especially with respect to whether Taiwan moves toward or away from formal independence. The authors focus on four areas of counter-transformation options that China may pursue (which most likely would include all or portions of each strategy): Conventional Modernization “Plus”; Subversion, Sabotage, and Information Operations; Missile-Centric Strategies; and Chinese Network-Centric Warfare. The path China takes will depend on its key national security goals and the political and economic context within which these goals are pursued. That said, the authors offer possible U.S. counter-responses to such courses of action (e.g., planning defensive measures, augmentation of network-centric platforms) and emphasize that the ultimate “victor” of transformation will be that nation with the best combination of surprise, error control, fortune, and highly trained people.
A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute Por
The relationship between China and Taiwan is more stable in 2009 than it has been in years, but China has nonetheless not renounced its “right” to use force to forestall Taiwan's “independence”. At the same time, the cross-strait military balance is shifting in ways that are problematic for Taiwan's defense: The growing size and quality of China's missile arsenal, along with other advances in Chinese military capabilities, call into question the United States' and Taiwan's ability to defend the island against a large-scale Chinese attack. In this volume, the authors employ a mix of theater-level combat modeling, simpler mathematical models, historical analysis, interviews with experts, and qualitative judgment to evaluate both the China-Taiwan political dynamic and the cross-strait military balance. Shlapak et al. conclude with a discussion of how Taiwan might be successfully defended against a Chinese invasion attempt.
You've Got Dissent! Chinese Dissident Use of the Internet and Beijing's Counter-Strategies Por
An analysis of the political use of the Internet by Chinese dissidents, both in the PRC and abroad, and the counterstrategies that Beijing has employed to prevent or minimize its impact. Although PRC officials have responded to the increased use of the Internet with predominantly traditional measures, they have been relatively successful. No credible challenges to the regime exist at present, despite the introduction of a massive modern telecommunications infrastructure. However, time may be on the side of the regime's opponents.
Brain Korea 21 Phase II: A New Evaluation Model Por
[Disponible también en coreano] | In the late 1990s, the Korea Ministry of Education and Human Resources, in response to concern over the relatively low standing of the nation’s universities and researchers, launched the Brain Korea 21 program BK21). BK21 seeks to make Korean research universities globally competitive and to produce more high-quality researchers in Korea. It provides fellowship funding to graduate students and professors in research groups at top Korean universities. Concentrating on the second phase of BK21, which will continue until 2012, the authors develop quantitative and qualitative models and methods to evaluate how well BK21 is fulfilling its goals, suggest a database of measures needed for that evaluation, and make suggestions for the future management of the program. The measurement methods proposed in this book can assess not only the progress of the BK21 program but also the health and development of the Korean university system as a whole. Korean university research could be stimulated further through a combination of competitive awards for project funding, portable fellowships for graduate students who would select their universities, and university access to capital for construction of first-rate research facilities.
Preparing for Korean Unification: Scenarios and Implications Por
This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenarios (peaceful unification, collapse and absorption, unification through armed conflict, and disequilibrium and external intervention) highlight both the increasing vulnerabilities of the North Korean state and the substantial uncertainties that attach to each outcome and to the potential U.S. policy responses. These considerations impose major conceptual, policy, and operational challenges both in the near and middle term and in the postunification peninsular security environment. Each warrants an enhanced analysis and assessment effort, lest U.S. and ROK policymakers find themselves ill prepared for major challenges to alliance management and to the U.S. Army role in a future crisis.
Preparing North Korean Elites for Unification Por
For years, the Republic of Korea (ROK/South Korea) has pursued a policy of peaceful reunification with North Korea. Many in the ROK believe that the ROK would take the lead in any instance of unification, in large part because the ROK dominates North Korea economically, demographically, and in numerous other ways. Indeed, then-ROK President Park Geun-hye and then-U.S. President Barack Obama made a joint declaration in 2013 that pledged to work toward a "peaceful reunification based on the principles of denuclearization, democracy, and a free market economy." Yet North Korean propaganda indoctrinates that country's elites to believe that ROK-led unification would be a disaster for them, one so awful that they are unlikely to even survive. Unless these North Korean elite views can be changed, it is hard to imagine how peaceful unification could ever be achieved.
Sunshine in Korea: The South Korean Debate over Policies Toward North Korea Por
The debate in South Korea over the government's engagement policy toward North Korea (the so-called "sunshine" policy) did not start with Pyongyang's recent admission that it has been secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons program in violation of multiple international commitments. However, the evolution of the debate will be an important determinant of how the South Korean and broader international response to this latest North Korean challenge ultimately ends. Examining the public South Korean debate over dealings with North Korea, this book reviews the relevant historical background, focusing on the evolution of "engagement" as the goal of South Korean policy toward the North. It examines the critical assumptions and central concepts motivating the new policy adopted by President Kim after his inauguration and analyzes the key issues in the public debate over this new policy. It also identifies the major actors and describes their respective positions on the government's approach to North Korea, as well as how these actors have affected public debate over government policy. The book concludes by assessing the sources of public controversy existing today, the likely short-term effects on South Korean policy, and the potential longer-term implications for South Korea, the United States, and U.S.-South Korean relations.
Strategic Choices in Science and Technology: Korea in the Era of a Rising China Por
Active investment in China, finding more market opportunities in China, and strengthening the cooperative relationship with China have so far been successful paths for Korean companies and the government to take in response to China’s new economic might. It is uncertain whether Korea can maintain its market position in both Chinese and world markets in the future as China becomes more competitive in many industries where Korea currently has a relative advantage. What should Korea do to confront these uncertainties and to maintain its economic dynamism? What would be appropriate strategies and policies for Korea to pursue, particularly in science and technology? This study develops a simple model of the Korean economy and four alternative S&T strategies that Korea could follow and shows how those strategies may affect Korean prosperity, explicitly considering the many uncertainties that Korea confronts. Using the metric of average annual rate of growth in GDP per capita for Korea during the period leading to 2015, the authors assess each strategy for performance across an ensemble of 100 future scenarios.
Japanese Science and Technology Capacity: Expert Opinions and Recommendations Por
The Japanese government places great emphasis on ensuring the country's vitality in science and technology (S&T) and remaining at the forefront of global science. It is in this spirit that Japan uses its five-year basic S&T plans, the first of which was introduced in 1996, to guide research and development (R&D) promotion. This report summarizes the views of 55 leading researchers in the United States, the European Union, Switzerland, and Russia regarding the competitiveness of Japanese research in 25 fields in the life sciences, environmental science, information and communication technology, and nanotechnology and materials science. Their responses cover several topics, including how the quality of research in Japan in these fields ranks against the world's leaders, strengths and weaknesses in the Japanese research and education system, and suggestions of approaches, models, and mechanisms to increase excellence in Japanese research in these 25 fields and in expanding Japan's S&T capacity in general.
Technological Lessons from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident Por
Following the devastating Tohoku earthquake and tsunami that afflicted Japan in March 2011, some of the reactors of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant began to release radioactive material into the environment. This study draws lessons from this experience regarding technological countermeasures to radioactive contamination to improve responses to future radiological or nuclear contingencies. Specifically, it focuses on how technologies were used to measure contamination over space and time, to limit the dispersal of radioactive material in the environment, to decontaminate areas or items, and to store radioactive materials for extended periods. The authors gathered data by conducting extensive literature reviews and dozens of interviews with experts in both Japan and the United States. The report analyzes how technologies were used successfully and identifies capability gaps that could be redressed through novel technologies or improved use of existing technologies. Also included is an abbreviated bibliography for further reading.
The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Deterring Gray Zone Coercion in the Maritime, Cyber, and Space Domains Por 
U.S.-Japan Alliance Conference: Strengthening Strategic Cooperation Por
Defending the U.S. and Japanese homelands, protecting and maintaining a safe and secure online environment, and ensuring that territorial and maritime disputes are resolved peacefully in an orderly process free from coercion represent some of the most important aims of the U.S.–Japan alliance. In 2015, Washington and Tokyo issued new defense guidelines to guide their security cooperation in support of these goals. The new guidelines expanded the areas of applicability of the alliance to include threats not limited to situations in areas surrounding Japan (SIAS-J), thus going beyond a limit that appeared in the 1997 U.S.–Japan Revised Defense Guidelines. The new guidelines also expand allied defense cooperation to include the increasingly important domains of space and cyberspace.
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